Dr. Andrew Wakefield was right about MMR, GI disease, and autism.

Research supposedly discrediting his work reveals just how correct Dr. Wakefield was.

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Anyone who has been involved with autism for any length of time will know the name. Andrew Wakefield. In the group of parents I have associated with since 2005, we call him Andy. He is a hero who committed the sin of listening to parents who were telling him, “My child’s gastrointestinal problems started after the MMR vaccine, and the autism diagnosis came later.”

Others, especially those who do not have personal experience with autism, may know Andrew Wakefield as “that British doctor who faked a study claiming that vaccines cause autism.” The next sentence is often, “He’s in jail.” No. He’s not. He never was. In the retracted Lancet paper, he also did not claim that vaccines cause autism. For those who have never read the actual paper, here is where you can find it. Please read it for yourself.

“We have identified a chronic enterocolitis in children that may be related to neuropsychiatric dysfunction. In most cases, onset of symptoms was after measles, mumps, rubella immunization. Further investigations are needed to examine this syndrome and its possible relation to this vaccine.”

Suggesting that further investigation was warranted was what got Dr. Wakefield on the radar of the powerful vaccine promoters. “Further investigation” was something they definitely did not want. Better to go after Dr. Wakefield with wanton aggression and “nip it in the bud,” making an example of him, in order to discourage anyone else who might think about pursuing this path of investigation.

What many people do not know is that Andrew Wakefield was just one of 13 authors of the 1998 study. Many people also don’t know that Professor John Walker-Smith, one of the other study authors, also lost his medical license. Unlike Dr. Wakefield, Prof. Walker-Smith’s insurance carrier provided funding for him to fight the revocation of his license in court. He won. His license was reinstated, and the earlier findings of inappropriate medical procedures and fraud were struck down. Had Dr. Wakefield chosen to join in the fight (and pay for it himself), he would have also been exonerated.

The National Autism Association (NAA) issued this press release in 2010, on the day when Prof. Walker-Smith was vindicated in court:

The National Autism Association (NAA) joins parents around the world in congratulating Professor John Walker-Smith in the decision handed down today in England’s High Court, reversing a 2010 ruling by the UK’s General Medical Council (GMC) which revoked the medical licenses of both Walker-Smith and Andrew Wakefield.  Today’s highly anticipated result of Walker-Smith’s appeal included a complete overturn of the GMC’s decision to revoke his medical license.

Prof. Walker-Smith and Dr. Wakefield were among 13 co-authors of a case series reported in the British journal, The Lancet, in 1998, which identified a novel inflammatory bowel disease in children diagnosed with autism.  The association between autism and bowel disease has been repeatedly confirmed by subsequent studies, [i] [ii] [iii] [iv] including a 2010 consensus report published in Pediatrics.[v] 

While the Lancet paper did not state that the MMR vaccine caused either inflammatory bowel disease or autism in the 12 children in the case series, the authors did note that seven of the children had received the MMR vaccine and that further investigation of a possible link to autism was warranted.  “From the mere suggestion that a vaccine could have a potential link with adverse outcomes, a war was waged against these distinguished physicians and researchers,” said NAA Executive Director and parent Lori McIlwain. “No one questions that adverse vaccine events do occur in susceptible individuals, yet those who investigate these events on behalf of sick children are subjected to the harshest scrutiny and punishment.”

In the case of Dr. Wakefield, being stripped of his license to practice medicine led to his move to the U.S. Unlike Prof. Walker-Smith who received funding for the appeal through his insurance carrier, Dr. Wakefield has been unable to appeal the GMC decision against him.  However, Dr. Wakefield has filed a defamation suit against Brian Deer and the British Medical Journal whose allegations of fraud were the basis of the GMC inquiry.

In a statement issued earlier today, UK advocacy organization Justice Awareness and Basic Support (JABS) said that the High Court’s decision found that:

• The children reported in the 1998 Lancet paper were very ill and did warrant serious clinical investigation and the investigations conducted were entirely appropriate for the children’s needs.

• The allegations of fraud based on this misconstruction, propagated by journalist Brian Deer, politician Evan Harris, the Murdoch press and the British Medical Journal (and rubberstamped by the GMC) are therefore also unfounded.

Parents and autism organizations are hopeful that the exoneration of Prof. Walker-Smith will pave the way for more open investigation of the potential role of vaccines in the development of autism and other serious health concerns.  “Today’s decision is a win not only for Dr. Walker-Smith, but for all families affected by autism,” said Ms. McIlwain. “Physicians and researchers must be free to explore all avenues towards causation and treatment without fear of reprisals if we are to truly make a difference for our children.

Now that we have that out of the way, I want to share with you my critique of a 2008 study that was conducted for the expressed purpose of refuting the work of Dr. Wakefield. What follows is a line-by-line analysis of the study, in which the authors used every opportunity at their disposal to fail to find significance. If you were trying to design a study in which you could not possibly find statistical significance, this is what it would look like. My commentary is in red.

Note: According to the CDC, the “current” rate of autism in the United States is estimated to be 1 in 36 children. Every two years, the CDC gathers data on 8-year-old children. It takes them four years to report that data. Since the year 2000, the rate has been increasing at around 13% per year. Since the most current numbers do not include any children under the age of twelve, the 1 in 36 number is a VAST UNDERESTIMATE.