Your calculations of annual percentage increase overestimate the rate. You write: "According to the ADDM data, over an 18-year period, the ASD incidence has increased by 318%, which breaks down to an average yearly increase of 17.67 percent. (318/18 = 17.67)" I'll recompute that figure in what follows.
The issue is that the division by 18 is not correct. It would be correct for simple interest, but these increases are compounded, and the needed compound-interest rate will be lower than the simple-interest rate (to produce the same increase over 18 years). The correct calculation:
That's a doubling time of about 9 years. So, your cumulative frequency table, which has a rate of 1:36 for birth year = 2012 should then have a rate of 1:18 for birth year = 2022 (i.e. 2-3 year olds now). That rate, roughly 5%, seems more plausible than 1:7 (also terrible, of course).
I have worked as an early childhood educator for over 20 years, I have seen the numbers of children with all conditions increase. It seems the increase is unbelievably large in autism spectrum disorder and serious anaphylaxis allergies. I have heard about the connection between the childhood vaccine schedule and food additives as likely possible reasons for the explosive increase. I have asked colleagues about this. Many of my colleagues take the position that vaccines are a requirement for enrollment for childcare and school, so it could it be that bad. I am doing a great deal of soul searching.
So, where does that leave families with autistic children?
Some of the ABA schools are no more than glorified day care centers. Some don’t provide cameras, so parents of non-verbal kids can keep tabs on them. Some are great, but then you have to play the “what insurance do you accept“ game.
It’s hell, meanwhile the days and weeks go by and the child gets no help. It’s disgusting.
Marcella, have you written or talked about the safest and easiest way to detox our bodies from heavy metals? Everyone is exposed to them daily and it’s such a hot topic but I feel like not all options that are popular are actually good for us or effective.
Hi Lauren: Thank you for this very important question. I have never been a fan of aggressive chelation and absolutely agree with Dr. Andy Cutler's position that doing a provocation test is not a good idea. Heavy metals (including, but not limited to mercury) hide in various places in the body. When you pull them from their hiding places by doing a urine provocation test, if you have not done the work to assess and address methylation pathway issues first, you run the very real risk of having previously stored metals recirculate and go into the brain, making things worse.
My position has always been to go very slowly and make sure the methylation pathway is working before doing any formal chelation, including Andy Cutler Chelation.
I am currently working with a family of a young man who recently turned 18. We have been working for two years on improving his overall nutritional status. He was basically non-verbal when we began and a few months after we started working together, he told his mother, "Love you" for the first time ever. We are doing hair analysis and using it as a guide for interventions. His methylation pathway has kicked in and he is detoxing on his own at this point, without any formal chelation. It's very exciting to see!
There is a little bit about chelation near the end of the presentation. Everything leading up to that point is the preparation.
I plan on speaking with the mom of the young man I spoke of in this comment and asking her permission to share the journey we have been on over the last two years. I will put that close to the top of my to-do list for future articles. Thank you for spurring me. <3
Something I don't see mentioned here is that (at least in some states) school autism and medical autism are different conditions. A medical diagnosis in my state doesn't guarantee special education eligibility and the school repeats their own evaluations to determine eligibility. Particularly in children with an average or above average IQ, the school may say that while they are autistic, there's no educational impact, so they're not eligible for special education. If you are only going by the IDEA eligibilities, you're missing a bunch of autistic kids.
I also think there should be more children in schools that receive supports for their learning. An IQ test does not give the whole picture. I understand that it will cost money, yet it needs to be done. I am also certain that the vaccine schedule needs to stop and food additives need to be curbed.
Your calculations of annual percentage increase overestimate the rate. You write: "According to the ADDM data, over an 18-year period, the ASD incidence has increased by 318%, which breaks down to an average yearly increase of 17.67 percent. (318/18 = 17.67)" I'll recompute that figure in what follows.
The issue is that the division by 18 is not correct. It would be correct for simple interest, but these increases are compounded, and the needed compound-interest rate will be lower than the simple-interest rate (to produce the same increase over 18 years). The correct calculation:
Annual compounding factor = (27.6/6.6)^(1/18) = 1.083
Thus, the annual percentage increase is 8.3%.
That's a doubling time of about 9 years. So, your cumulative frequency table, which has a rate of 1:36 for birth year = 2012 should then have a rate of 1:18 for birth year = 2022 (i.e. 2-3 year olds now). That rate, roughly 5%, seems more plausible than 1:7 (also terrible, of course).
I have worked as an early childhood educator for over 20 years, I have seen the numbers of children with all conditions increase. It seems the increase is unbelievably large in autism spectrum disorder and serious anaphylaxis allergies. I have heard about the connection between the childhood vaccine schedule and food additives as likely possible reasons for the explosive increase. I have asked colleagues about this. Many of my colleagues take the position that vaccines are a requirement for enrollment for childcare and school, so it could it be that bad. I am doing a great deal of soul searching.
I just posted a link to this gem in like 10 places on the Colorado Depart of health's X account with #vaccineSideEffects. Spread the word people!
I, completely agree.
Well done!!
So, where does that leave families with autistic children?
Some of the ABA schools are no more than glorified day care centers. Some don’t provide cameras, so parents of non-verbal kids can keep tabs on them. Some are great, but then you have to play the “what insurance do you accept“ game.
It’s hell, meanwhile the days and weeks go by and the child gets no help. It’s disgusting.
It gets even worse after they age out of school into adulthood.
💔
I agree. And I am so sorry to hear that you are traveling this road.
Marcella, have you written or talked about the safest and easiest way to detox our bodies from heavy metals? Everyone is exposed to them daily and it’s such a hot topic but I feel like not all options that are popular are actually good for us or effective.
Have you heard about the Heavy Metal Detox Smoothie from Medical Medium? Its great.
Hi Lauren: Thank you for this very important question. I have never been a fan of aggressive chelation and absolutely agree with Dr. Andy Cutler's position that doing a provocation test is not a good idea. Heavy metals (including, but not limited to mercury) hide in various places in the body. When you pull them from their hiding places by doing a urine provocation test, if you have not done the work to assess and address methylation pathway issues first, you run the very real risk of having previously stored metals recirculate and go into the brain, making things worse.
My position has always been to go very slowly and make sure the methylation pathway is working before doing any formal chelation, including Andy Cutler Chelation.
I am currently working with a family of a young man who recently turned 18. We have been working for two years on improving his overall nutritional status. He was basically non-verbal when we began and a few months after we started working together, he told his mother, "Love you" for the first time ever. We are doing hair analysis and using it as a guide for interventions. His methylation pathway has kicked in and he is detoxing on his own at this point, without any formal chelation. It's very exciting to see!
I have published a power-point presentation on biomedical interventions, which explains my approach. You can access it here: https://marcellapiperterry.substack.com/p/autism-is-treatable-biomedical-interventions
There is a little bit about chelation near the end of the presentation. Everything leading up to that point is the preparation.
I plan on speaking with the mom of the young man I spoke of in this comment and asking her permission to share the journey we have been on over the last two years. I will put that close to the top of my to-do list for future articles. Thank you for spurring me. <3
Something I don't see mentioned here is that (at least in some states) school autism and medical autism are different conditions. A medical diagnosis in my state doesn't guarantee special education eligibility and the school repeats their own evaluations to determine eligibility. Particularly in children with an average or above average IQ, the school may say that while they are autistic, there's no educational impact, so they're not eligible for special education. If you are only going by the IDEA eligibilities, you're missing a bunch of autistic kids.
I also think there should be more children in schools that receive supports for their learning. An IQ test does not give the whole picture. I understand that it will cost money, yet it needs to be done. I am also certain that the vaccine schedule needs to stop and food additives need to be curbed.
That is an excellent point. I agree completely.